Separating fact from fiction in NWS staffing during Texas floods

By EPN Staff

Staffing shortages at the National Weather Service (NWS) did not play a role in either forecasters’ ability to issue warnings or relay critical information to public safety officials during the catastrophic floods in Texas over the July Fourth weekend, according to multiple meteorologists.

Speaking with the Associated Press, NWS Austin/San Antonio meteorologist Jason Runyen told reporters that they “had extra staff on duty” in the days and hours leading up to the severe storms. While two forecasters are usually on deck during benign weather, it is standard operating procedure to call in people to staff up and work overtime for high-impact events, said Runyen. This event was no exception.

Additionally, most of the job vacancies at NWS weather forecast offices (WFOs) stem from voluntary early retirements or resignations, not firings from the Trump administration’s reductions in force (RIFs), contrary to some parties’ claims.

Why it matters

The series of slow-moving thunderstorms that dumped over 1.8 trillion gallons of rain on the Texas Hill Country on July 3 and 4 led to deadly flooding along the Guadalupe River, claiming the lives of more than 120 people, including dozens of young girls enrolled at Camp Mystic.

Almost immediately, legacy media and partisan officials blamed a lack of warning coordination, which they claimed was caused by the Trump administration’s alleged firing of more than 550 NWS employees in the spring.

However, five meteorologists were on shift that night – more than usual. A flood watch was posted more than 15 hours in advance and a flash flood warning was posted at 1:14 a.m. CDT July 4, more than three hours before the river began to rapidly rise.

Other factors surrounding the tragic weather event included the late-night timing of the floods, Camp Mystic’s no electronics policy and warning fatigue from prior false alarms.

The bigger picture

Documents obtained from current NWS employees reveal that the Trump administration’s Office of Personnel Management (OPM) aims to reduce the federal headcount to save taxpayer dollars but hopes to minimize the use of “costly and disruptive reductions in force (RIFs)” to accomplish those ends.

The administration offered federal employees two different voluntary severance packages including a $25,000 bonus, from which they could be eligible to apply to one or both. These were optional and not mandated, the forms show.

At the local level of weather forecast offices, all NWS meteorologists, hydrologists and technicians – including probationary staff – were exempt from the reduction-in-force because their work is critical to public safety and emergency response.

Additional details

The two severance packages offered by the administration are the “Voluntary Early Retirement Authority” (VERA) and separation incentive payment (VISP).

• Applicants to VERA must be at least 50 years old with 20 creditable Federal service or be of any age with 25 years of creditable Federal service, and they could keep their Federal Employee Health Benefits (FEHB) into retirement.
  
• Applicants to VISP were not eligible for early retirement but were granted a $25,000 bonus if they chose to leave. However, they cannot seek a job in the government for at least five years after separation. And, if they choose to come back, they have to return that money.