Climate change focus shifts as Gates and others reassess risks

By EPN Staff

In a stunning reversal, billionaire Bill Gates has backed off from previous climate change alarmism, now admitting global warming “will not lead to humanity’s demise,” and resources would be better spent elsewhere.

Ahead of the COP30 summit in Brazil, Gates published an essay, entitled “Three tough truths about climate,” arguing that overstating climate threats detracts from addressing poverty and disease in the poorest countries. 

The long-time proponent of emission reduction says too much emphasis has been put on rushing zero carbon emissions goals at any cost, instead of improving life in a warming world.

“Sometimes the world acts as if any effort to fight climate change is as worthwhile as any other,” he wrote. “As a result, less-effective projects are diverting money and attention from efforts that will have more impact on the human condition: namely, making it affordable to eliminate all greenhouse gas emissions and reducing extreme poverty with improvements in agriculture and health.”

Why it matters

How climate risks are framed can influence how national governments, development agencies, and major financial institutions direct billions in environmental and energy spending.

Gates’ comments reflect a broader shift from alarmism to pragmatism, where analysts push a data-driven interpretation of long-term climate risks – focused on innovation, adaptation, and practical mitigation – over catastrophic predictions.

Experts at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) similarly urge a “climate realism” strategy that acknowledges global climate targets are unachievable and don’t take American interests into account.

A realistic approach would place greater emphasis on practical energy innovation and ensure that climate investments support sustainable economic growth. 

The bigger picture

Changing projections have made it easier to jump off the alarmist train. 

Former self-described “climate catastrophist” Ted Nordhaus of the Breakthrough Institute notes that earlier estimates of 5°C of global warming by 2100 have been revised downward to 3°C or less, based on observed demographic and economic trends. 

Gates also pointed to improved energy efficiency, technological innovation, and faster decarbonization.

“Ten years ago, the International Energy Agency predicted that by 2040, the world would be emitting 50 billion tons of carbon dioxide every year. Now, just a decade later, the IEA’s forecast has dropped to 30 billion, and it’s projecting that 2050 emissions will be even lower,” he wrote. “In the past 10 years, we’ve cut projected emissions by more than 40 percent.”

Additional context

Gates, Breakthrough Institute and CFR emphasize that reduced alarm does not negate risk; rather, it reframes climate change as a long-term management challenge instead of an immediate existential threat.