Without new generation, U.S. faces electricity crisis Image By EPN Staff A new Department of Energy report warns the United States cannot power its artificial intelligence future and retire coal and other power plants as planned, and it predicts a reliability crisis by 2030. The report is particularly worrisome for the 13-state PJM grid. The analysis calls for a major push toward natural gas and nuclear technology. The report praises President Donald Trump’s administration, saying it has made “great strides” in just months back in office “to enable addition of more energy infrastructure crucial to the utilization” of oil, gas, coal and nuclear power, all of which are abundant in the United States. “However, even with these foundational strengths, the accelerated retirement of existing generation capacity and the insufficient pace of firm, dispatchable generation additions (partly due to a recent focus on intermittent rather than dispatchable sources of energy) undermine this energy outlook,” the report states. Why it matters The report warns the U.S. could prove incapable of powering AI and new advanced manufacturing while retiring coal plants, a dynamic that could ripple across states and regions. It suggests load growth from AI data centers and other growing needs, combined with older plant retirements, increase the risks of power outages 100 times over by 2030. Like any multi-year, national analysis of an entire economic sector, the DOE assessments are based on assumptions and estimates. The authors assumed 104 GW of retiring generation and 101 GW of new load by 2030, about half of which would come from data centers; various other analyses have put data centers’ new load between 35 GW and 108 GW. “The 104 GW of retirements are projected to be replaced by 209 GW of new generation by 2030,” the report states. Only 22 GW would come from firm baseload generation sources, like natural gas and nuclear power. The rest is projected to be intermittent generation from wind and solar, which don’t operate 24/7. The impact of lost generation varies widely, depending on various models, but are projected to range from 7 hours a year in CAISO, which serves California, to 430 hours a year in PJM, which serves 13 states, including Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. The report models extreme weather impacts by region as well. Most regions experienced 3 or more hours per year in which demand outpaces available supply, the report states. PJM experienced 1,052 hours in its worst year. The bigger picture The report calls for “robust and rapid reforms,” calling them “crucial to powering enough data centers while safeguarding grid reliability and a low cost of living for all Americans.” The report doesn’t get into construction costs or supply chain issues. Executives for major gas turbine manufacturers, including GE Verona, Siemens and Mitsubishi Power have said turbines are on backorder until 2028 to 2032. The last completed new nuclear reactors in the United States are at Plant Vogtle in Georgia, and they came in late and over budget. Even so, there is significant optimism and major investment in both conventional nuclear power and small modular reactors, which are being studied now, including at a massive emerging campus at Texas A&M. The Trump administration is pushing hard to speed up the nuclear approval process. Energy Secretary Chris Wright also issued emergency orders recently to keep operating a coal plant in Michigan and a natural gas plant in Pennsylvania, delaying planned retirements. The report cautioned against those retirements. Additional details The report ultimately considers massive increases in U.S. generating capacity to be a national security issue. “A failure to power the data centers needed to win the AI arms race or to build the grid infrastructure that ensures our energy independence could result in adversary nations shaping digital norms and controlling digital infrastructure, thereby jeopardizing U.S. economic and national security,” it states.
