High summer temps, demand could strain electric grid reliability Image By EPN Staff Large swaths of the country could see blackouts this summer as heatwaves push some power grids to the brink, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) says in its latest Summer Reliability Assessment. The annual review, from a regulatory group that monitors the nation’s grids, says “all areas are assessed as having adequate anticipated resources for normal summer peak load conditions,” but if the summer gets hotter than that there may be problems in the central United States, the southwest, Texas and New England. All in all, NERC’s 2025 assessment is similar in tone to the one it issued ahead of the summer of 2024, though the 2025 report shows increased concern for the central states and less risk in California. The assessment covers the four-month period of June through September. Why it matters NERC predicts that peak electricity demand around the United States, Canada and Mexico this summer will be 10 gigawatts higher than last year. That would be more than double the increase those power grids saw from 2023 to 2024, NERC said in its assessment announcement. NERC cites new data centers, new industrial activity and the electrification of more vehicles as factors driving the heightened demand. New facilities installed over the last few years – primarily solar energy and batteries that store electricity – are helping meet this surging growth, but many of those gains are offset by the retirements of older power plants, and the intermittent nature of solar generators “introduce more complexity and energy limitations into the resource mix,” the announcement states. The bigger picture The assessment breaks down risks in several areas: The central United States: The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) grid “has less supply capacity compared to last summer as a result of generator retirements … (and) could face supply shortfalls,” NERC said. The southwest: Widespread heat events in the Southwest Power Pool “can drive high electricity demand and force generators off-line, leaving operators with insufficient flexible resources to counter wind resource variability” the report states. Texas: Continued growth in energy demand, combined with Texas’ high reliance on solar energy, may leave the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) “with energy shortages when solar generation ramps down and demand remains elevated.” New England: Reserve capacity in NPCC New England “has fallen from the prior summer with the loss of resources and higher demand, increasing the area’s reliance on neighbors during stressful summer conditions.” NERC labels the risks in all these areas as “elevated,” meaning there’s potential they won’t have enough power if temperatures spike above normal peaks, as opposed to “high,” which would mean a danger of insufficient power reserves during normal peak conditions. Additional details The forecast occurs against a backdrop of growing challenges and shifting policy priorities. Energy demand is increasing, global temperatures are rising and policymakers are debating the balance between carbon-free resources, like wind and solar, and the always-on, or easily ramped-up, generators like natural gas and nuclear. Congress is debating the repeal of hundreds of billions of dollars in clean energy incentives, and President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed support for natural gas, coal and nuclear energy, a major shift from President Joe Biden's administration.
