EIA: Computing’s energy needs are outpacing all other commercial uses

By EPN Staff

The electricity it takes to run computers in commercial buildings is expected to increase faster than any other commercial use, according to the Energy Information Administration, and it will likely outpace lighting, heating and cooling needs in the coming years.

The EIA sees commercial computing energy needs, which currently account for about 8% of commercial sector consumption, growing to 20% by 2050.

“Ultimately, more electricity could be consumed by computing than for any other end use in the commercial sector,” EIA researchers wrote when the administration released its Annual Energy Outlook report for 2025.

Why it matters

“Computing” in EIA parlance includes energy consumption from data center servers, desktop and laptop computers and monitors in commercial spaces. 

The EIA’s projections have those power needs surpassing refrigeration this decade, lighting some time before 2035, space cooling in the late 2030s and ventilation costs between 2045 and 2050.

It may happen even faster: The EIA says these predictions are based on a methodology that necessarily makes assumptions about future usage in a fast-changing world of artificial intelligence.

Commercial computing costs are just one aspect of the EIA’s much broader Annual Energy Outlook, but they’re important because computing needs are driving growth in overall electricity demand. Last year the EIA reported that growth was “concentrated in a handful of states experiencing rapid development of large-scale computing facilities such as data centers.”

In fact, in most states, commercial electricity demand actually declined from 2019 to 2023, the EIA said.

That demand is spreading, though, and the EIA says computing growth will be large enough to help reverse an overall decline in energy demand per square foot across the commercial sector.

“We expect commercial computing growth will outpace computing efficiency improvements which, in the past, have moderated the growth in electricity consumption associated with computers,” the administration said.

The bigger picture

These EIA figures are based on “historically observed technological growth assumptions,” and the researchers behind the calculations noted the many moving parts in energy right now.

That impacts multiple aspects of the administration’s Annual Energy Outlook.

The outlook is based on U.S. laws as of December, but federal clean air rules that would otherwise require coal-fired power plants to shutdown or have expensive modifications, and which would require carbon-capture installations at natural gas plants, may be repealed, the EIA noted.

In fact, the Trump administration formally proposed doing so in June.

Fuel economy standards and tailpipe emission rules also may be rolled back, which would impact electric vehicle sales and, ultimately, vehicle charging infrastructure.

Also important: oil and natural gas prices will fluctuate, leading to potential high and low-price scenarios that would have ripple effects across the economy.

“Energy markets are complex,” the EIA said in its outlook. “Energy models are simplified representations of energy production and consumption, laws and regulations and producer and consumer behavior. Projections are highly dependent on the data, methodologies, model structures and assumptions used in their development. These results are not predictions of what will happen. Instead, AEO2025 results represent modeled projections of what could happen given certain assumptions and methodologies.”